Check out the beatroot’s new political barometer. (photo: PiS head, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is looking very Pis-ed off recently)
You’ve heard of the Consumer Price Index (CPI); you may have even heard of an index fund. You have certainly heard about your index finger. Now the beatroot is proud to launch his new political barometer, measuring how unhappy and disappointed Law and Justice party (PiS) voters have become since last autumn’s general election.
The methodology to the Pis-ed off Index (PoI) is simple: compare the PiS-led government’s opinion poll ratings to their share of the vote in last September's general election.
For instance: in last September’s general election PiS gained 27 percent of the popular vote. But, if PiS had an opinion poll rating now of 24%, then they would have a Pis-ed off Index rating of minus 3. That would mean that three percent of their support had got pissed off with PiS and pissed off somewhere else.
The latest opinion poll published in Gazeta Wyborcza gives PiS…27% of the vote.
Which gives PiS at the moment a PoI rating of - zero
You see, it’s simple.
At the moment the Law and Justice PiS-ed off Index rating is flat. But how long will this last?
They have formed a coalition with parties (Self defense and League of Polish Families) that many Poles – certainly in the media – find beyond credibility.
Middle class PiS voters are the most despondent. When they voted for Law and Justice they presumed that they would form a coalition with the free market orientated 'liberals', Civic Platform.
Many middle class Catholics voted that way because PiS are the most mainstream party that associates itself with the ‘social solidarity’ of Polish Catholicism. By voting that way, with a mixed coalition of statists and free marketeers, they could vote with their conscience, but still have some economic realism in the government thrown in for good measure.
The coalition never materialized.
Now they are being lumbered with a coalition they feel embarrassed by. It's a coalition dominated by supporters who the new, capitalist Poland has forgotten.
The dispossessed – who also happen to be the most socially conservative - are now ruling Poland, and the, small by western standards, middle class is getting twitchy.
How long will it be before the middle class voter looks for something else a bit more like them? How long before the international reputation of Poland - which is taking a pounding - starts to become a break on investment, prestige? How long will an unstable coalition such as this implode? How long before PiS slip down the PiS-ed off Index?
Jaroslaw Kaczynski's personal ratings have dive bombed recently. He has a PiS-ed off Index (PoI) rating in double figures and more. His wheeling and dealing to form this government has not looked good to many.
Civic Platform (liberal economy) lead the polls with 29%, Self defense 10% and ex-commies SLD 7%. All other parties would fail to get into parliament if a general election was held today
So keep your eye out for beatroot’s PiS-ed off Index – it’s the only poll of Poles that counts!
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Posted by beatroot at 5/09/2006