Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Introducing the PiS-ed off Index


Check out the beatroot’s new political barometer. (photo: PiS head, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is looking very Pis-ed off recently)

You’ve heard of the Consumer Price Index (CPI); you may have even heard of an index fund. You have certainly heard about your index finger. Now the beatroot is proud to launch his new political barometer, measuring how unhappy and disappointed Law and Justice party (PiS) voters have become since last autumn’s general election.

The methodology to the Pis-ed off Index (PoI) is simple: compare the PiS-led government’s opinion poll ratings to their share of the vote in last September's general election.

For instance: in last September’s general election PiS gained 27 percent of the popular vote. But, if PiS had an opinion poll rating now of 24%, then they would have a Pis-ed off Index rating of minus 3. That would mean that three percent of their support had got pissed off with PiS and pissed off somewhere else.

The latest opinion poll published in Gazeta Wyborcza gives PiS…27% of the vote.

Which gives PiS at the moment a PoI rating of - zero

You see, it’s simple.

At the moment the Law and Justice PiS-ed off Index rating is flat. But how long will this last?

They have formed a coalition with parties (Self defense and League of Polish Families) that many Poles – certainly in the media – find beyond credibility.

Middle class PiS voters are the most despondent. When they voted for Law and Justice they presumed that they would form a coalition with the free market orientated 'liberals', Civic Platform.

Many middle class Catholics voted that way because PiS are the most mainstream party that associates itself with the ‘social solidarity’ of Polish Catholicism. By voting that way, with a mixed coalition of statists and free marketeers, they could vote with their conscience, but still have some economic realism in the government thrown in for good measure.

The coalition never materialized.

Now they are being lumbered with a coalition they feel embarrassed by. It's a coalition dominated by supporters who the new, capitalist Poland has forgotten.

The dispossessed – who also happen to be the most socially conservative - are now ruling Poland, and the, small by western standards, middle class is getting twitchy.

How long will it be before the middle class voter looks for something else a bit more like them? How long before the international reputation of Poland - which is taking a pounding - starts to become a break on investment, prestige? How long will an unstable coalition such as this implode? How long before PiS slip down the PiS-ed off Index?

Jaroslaw Kaczynski's personal ratings have dive bombed recently. He has a PiS-ed off Index (PoI) rating in double figures and more. His wheeling and dealing to form this government has not looked good to many.

Civic Platform (liberal economy) lead the polls with 29%, Self defense 10% and ex-commies SLD 7%. All other parties would fail to get into parliament if a general election was held today

So keep your eye out for beatroot’s PiS-ed off Index – it’s the only poll of Poles that counts!

22 comments:

Lynn said...

Applying that index to the US 2004 election and a recent Gallop poll results in a stunning -20%.

Anonymous said...

Are these the tories new friends?

beatroot said...

Lynn: it's a bush-ed off index!

beatroot said...

Anon: these are the Tories new buddies in the EU parliament.

Anonymous said...

Oh dear.

beatroot said...

O yes!

I think what the Cameron calculation is, is that he will be very touchy-feely on the environment etc, but he is presuming that the Brits are euroscpetic to their finger nails and will take an alliance with slightly prehistoric governments and parties such as PiS in Europe.

gumish said...

beatroot as far as I can tell there is hardly any middle class in Poland ;)

beatroot said...

Which is why the PiS's Pis-ed off rating hasn't fallen very far yet. :-/

Renegade Eye said...

It wouldn't be Poland, if primitive nationalism didn't reign.

beatroot said...

That's not really historically correct, Ren.

Nationalism was a feature of inter-war politics in Poland, but there again, it was a feature in most of Europe. Nationalism featured in the Stalinist 'Polish way' to socialism in the 1960's, too.

But Poles are not jingoistic at all. They want to be left alone and do not like getting involved in wars and stuff. And they have an inferiority complex, not a superiority complex (hence the anti-Semitism), like you need for proper nationalism...

Anonymous said...

...so the potential Tory allies in the EU Parliament are allied to Lepper's party which is partly allied to fringe Eurosceptics and partly to the Socialists in the EU Parliament? It's all friends together in that case.

beatroot said...

No, no. no...soryy, maybe my fault. It is PiS (Law and Justice) that the Tories will be allies of...they are the ones that want a return of capital punishment, homophobic etc...

Not much better then.

Anonymous said...

No, you were clear, perhaps I was not.

The Tories are apparently planning to join up with the PiS. What I find amusing is that the PiS has formed an something of an alliance with Lepper in Poland while over in Brussels some of Lepper's MEPs are in alliance with the oddest of Eurosceptics (see the website of their political party), while others are members of the Socialist group.

beatroot said...

Sorry, it was me that was being dumb. Yes, you are right. and that just shows that this left/right stuff isn;t much use here.

Nor is it much use in UK anymore.

Does Cameron realise this? Does he care? he doesn't seem interested in policy at all. I doubt if he cares. All he has to to do is keep riding his bike...

Anonymous said...

He should care but clearly he doesn't if he is planning to join up with that lot.

beatroot said...

Like I said: I think he thinks that the Brits will take anything to do with the EU...it really isn't a big issue in UK.

Anonymous said...

That is probably the case. There is no interest at national level in alliances in the EU. Parties can get away with being joined to whoever they want no matter how weird.

As a side issue I see that Lepper's lot are allied to Ian Paisley's party now. How do these loonies find each other?

beatroot said...

Good question. They do have a few things in common. The establishment is shocked by things they do...they have a contstituency that models itself as a victim. Both get called 'populist'. Both have been called a 'bigot' on a few occassions.

But ideologically, they are different. DUP is a rightwing conservative party, Lepper an ex-commie...

Eugene said...

Beatroot, do you recall when I once mentioned the sample opinion polls might be distorted? The latest results by PGB (Polskiej Grupy Badawczej)as of May 14, 2006 show the following:

PiS 32 proc., PO 27 proc.

Source (GW):
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/1,53600,3344162.html

What accounts for the sudden shift in public opinion, giving PIS the upper hand? This is 'after' the coalition as well. Very interesting. Can you please give your feedback on these latest stats Beatroot and what might account for the shift? It boggles me. Thanks.

Note: When I originally read the above article in Gazeta Wyborcza, it was quite lengthy and on their frontpage online news. It was immediately withdrawn from the frontpage, reduced in length, and placed into oblivion. Now, only a fragment of the original opinion poll appears and can't even be extracted in GW's archives as of my writing. Why?

beatroot said...

Yes, I saw it on Fakty last night. I was wondering about that too.

And yes, I do remember our little debate about opinion polls.

I can't explain it...but I would be cautious of just one poll...let's see another one before we start to get carried away...

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