Thursday, February 08, 2007

Wishful thinking and the beatroot’s ‘PiS-ed off’ index


Do the Sikorski/Dorn resignations mean the government is falling apart? With a lack of anything inspiring in the opposition ranks going on, many are pinning their hopes on it.

The ex-defense minister, Radek Sikorski was never one of the Kaczynski brothers’ closest supporters. When he excepted the defense portfolio he said he was ‘non-aligned’, even though he stood on the Kaczynski brother’s Law and Justice ticket when campaigning to be elected for the Senate, the so-called (snigger) ‘upper house of parliament’.

The ex-interior minister, Ludwik Dorn, on the other hand, was the ‘third twin’; he was loyally ‘on-side’ – a safe pair of hands.

And now Ludwik has gone and spoiled it all (to quote Frank and Nancy Sinatra) and done something stupid: implied that there is a rift deep inside the government.

PiS opponents get excited – not by their inspiring opposition to this government – because there has been none – but maybe, just maybe, PiS will split in two.

As Polish Outlook notes, this is the government opponent’s only hope.

What is remarkable about this bumbling, naive, single issue obsessed government is that they have retained support among their core voters.

Last year I introduced the beatroot’s PiS-ed off index – how much of government supporters have deserted them since the general election of November 2005. In that election PiS gained 27 percent of the vote.

In the latest opinion poll, PiS are receiving 28 percent approval rating. That gives PiS a + 1 pissed off rating. More voters support the government now than they did in the last election.

What that proves, if anything, is that no matter how bad things get for the government, and if they had another election tomorrow, PiS would still be in government, albeit forced into a coalition with their main rivals, the ineffective Civic Platform.

So what all the government’s opponents are hoping for is PiS split in two.

And that’s an indictment of the opposition’s impotence, as much as it is the government’s incompetence.

9 comments:

sonia said...

A perfect government is a government that does nothing. By that standard, PiS is a near-perfect government. No wonder they actually increased their share of support.

beatroot said...

A perfect government is a government that does nothing.

Utter and complete tripe! A good government is one that represents the people who voted for it, inspires and leads and changes society for the better. That's what they are for. That's why we have democracy.

Your reaction Sonia is one of the most deeply reactionary...

opamp said...

The only problem with this government is that it is not a government of Platforma Obywatelska. By any other objective criterion, it is not an exceptionally bad government; it is a pretty average one. It is being critized for the very same things that any previous government was doing.

The PO is an impotent party without a vision, but with a great sense of entitlement. But, since PO has a great track record in destroying the country, any government that keeps it away while not being partcularly harmful by itself is a good one. And this cabinet, because of not doing anything, hardly qualifies as harmful.

beatroot said...

since PO has a great track record in destroying the country, any government that keeps it away while not being partcularly harmful by itself is a good one.

How has PO destroyed the country when it, as a party, has never been in government?

Obvious question, but...

opamp said...

How has PO destroyed the country when it, as a party, has never been in government?

PO is a 2001 offshot of UW, which in turn was created in 1994 by the merge of KLD and UD. Mr. Tusk was one of the founders of the KLD. (UW, trying to recover after the split has been rebranded PD).

Economical policies of KLD/UD governments 1990-1993 (Suchocka's cabinet, in partcular) left us with wrecked economy, destroyed industry, three million unemployment, and the postcommunists winning the 1993 elections.

The very same club, in the mean time rebranded UW and later PO now paints itself as the saviors of the country.

beatroot said...

PO is a 2001 offshot of UW

That is just not true.

PO is a mixture of some of the more rightwing members of UW plus some other groups - for instance the group that Rokita is from...

sonia said...

Your reaction Sonia is one of the most deeply reactionary

I definitely hope so. In politics like in medicine, the motto ought to be: 'first, do no harm'...

If Hitler did nothing, there would be no Holocaust...

beatroot said...

definitely hope so. In politics like in medicine, the motto ought to be: 'first, do no harm'...

'Do no0 harm' is my motto, but I am aghast that it is yours, being into neo-con inteventions into others countries...

Unbelievable.

opamp said...

PO is a mixture of some of the more rightwing members of UW plus some other groups - for instance the group that Rokita is from...

Except the groups in question have traditionally formed the cabinets with UW. And regarding Rokita, he was in UD/UW in from 1991 to 1997, when he joined AWS, only to join PO in 2001.