Polish gas company PGNiG reports that at 11.00am today it detected a drop in gas pressure on the Polish-Ukraine border.
Russia shutting off the taps at 7am local time will affect 14% of Polish supplies, as much of gas imported from Russia passes through Ukraine before it gets to Poland.
Analyst types are saying that, deprived of gas from Russia, Ukraine might be tempted to dip into supplies earmarked for other countries.
More than 80% of European gas supplies come through Ukraine.
Gazprom wants to increase the price of its product four times. Ukraine, unsurprisingly, wants to keep its relatively cheap gas relatively cheap.
You don't have to be a genius to work out that the gas-bullying is the Putin regime's answer to the Orange Revolution.
But once again, Poland finds itself rather too close geographically to the Big Angry Bear.
Poland was already outraged last year when Russia announced that it would be building an underground pipeline straight to Germany, so by-passing Poland and the Baltic states completely.
In his first speech as president last week Lech Kaczynski said that one of Warsaw’s main foreign policy goals was to improve relationships with Moscow, but the gas shutoff has not been a good start to the year.
In a related development, Gazprom has finally wrestled control of a Belarusian pipeline that transports 10% of Russian gas to Europe from the state-run Beltransgaz. In retirn, Belarus will continue to get its gas dirt cheap.
The Herald Tribune reports:
Gazprom said in a statement that it would sell gas to Belarus for $46.68 per 1,000 cubic meters, or 35,300 cubic feet, while Belarus will charge Gazprom transit fees of 75 cents per 1,000 cubic meters per 1,000 kilometers, or about 620 miles. Gas sells in Europe for more than $210 per 1,000 cubic meters, and European transit fees are nearly $2.30 per 1,000 cubic meters per 1,000 kilometers. Gazprom has said repeatedly that it is planning to end gas subsidies to former Soviet states.
Alexander Ryazanov, deputy chairman of Gazprom's management committee, said Belarus had been given a special offer "because Russia and Belarus were in the process of establishing a common union state, which implies using common standards when drafting financial and economic parameters of the two countries."
So Ukraine had been warned that it would loose its subsidies and what would happen if it tried to stand up to Putin.
It also shows that Ukraine is going to pay for President Yushchenko’s cuddling up to the West.