Sunday, October 21, 2007

Looks like a higher turnout


By 10.30 am over eight percent had voted in the election today – that’s two percent more than in the last election, two years ago.

Highest turnout has been in Krakow so far, with 16 percent already voted.
My girlfriend has just cast her ballot. It’s a gloriously sunny day today and she said that she had never seen a polling station so busy.

And in the US, around 80 percent of those registered voted. In Greenpoint, NY, 87 percent turned up.

But the polling stations will be closing 20 minutes later than planned as in two places, one in Plock and the other in Pila, opened late. It reminds me of one election a couple of years ago – can’t remember which one, where the polling officers got so rat arsed the night before, she failed to get up on time to open the polling station.

So exit poll results will now be at 20.20 CET. See ya then...

16 comments:

tim said...

Then that sounds like good news for PO, especially if the turnout is high in the big cities. If PiS somehow sneaks back, we could expect to see a rapid rewinding of the Zloty, which has been going up recently as markets factored in the possibility of a (euro-friendly) PO government.

What price a coalition of Pis, SO and LiD in order to keep Tusk at bay? ;-)

opamp said...

This town is named Piła, not Pile. Pile is in locative case (w Pile).

beatroot said...

Sorry Opamp. Changing it now.

Andrew said...

Tim, you got it all wrong - the zloty has been extremely solid for a very long time (at least 3 years) and it has absolutely NOTHING to do with the market expectations of PO snatching power back from PiS.

My second comment is to Beatroot - the official percentage of Poles who cast their votes in the U.S. is 58%. The higher figure you quote (i.e., 80%) was published by the "Gazeta Wyborcza" daily earlier today - and now has been taken off its website. 58% is the official result announced by the State Election Committee.

Best regards from Poland,
Andrew

beatroot said...

I got the US thing from tvn24 today

http://www.tvn24.pl/-1,1525553,wiadomosc.html

And in POland there are opinion polls suggesting that 30 percent had voted by 4.30 pm.

beatroot said...

Make that 35 percent....so at this rate they are going to easily beat two years ago....

Andrew said...

Beatroot, the report you referred to states clearly in Polish that "in SOME precincts 80% of Poles voted". Can you see the difference?

Two years ago 40% of eligible Poles voted. That was rock bottom, so an increase in the turnout was always very likely. I think by the end of the day the turnout will be approximately 55% - which is more or less the same number as in the last presidential election.

Im my mind there are no REAL signs that the turnout will be huge.

beatroot said...

I see the difference, but I also see 'record turnout..'.

But in general I think it is safe to say that turnout in this election will be higher both in and outside the country. No wonder really...

Anonymous said...

my wife just went to vote (election office 784 ul Staffa Zoliborz) but she was told they'd run out of voting papers. Scandalous.

beatroot said...

Amazing. Lots of stories coming in that turnout is much hifgher than last time. At 16.30 over 50 here in Warsaw.

And the lady in the kiosk near where we vote around here is exhausted - she said people have been coming in all day after voting.

Andrew said...

Well, according to one poll the turnout is a mere 50.6% at 7 p.m.

I'm beginning to doubt my prediction of 55%. It may be less than that.

After all the hoopla and the stories of "mile-long queues"... kind of disappointing, isn't it beatroot?

michael farris said...

beat, do you live in ochota? a link at wyborcza indicates they had 68 % turnout...

Damien Moran said...

BR, did you get the spelling wrong cause you recently saw the film 'Piła' (Saw)? Quite bloody stuff - a bit similar to the Polish political scene at times really.

Re. polls predicting turnout, maybe they'll be accurate/maybe not, but please tell us what the source of the poll is. We've already discussed here how ridiculously varied polls in Poland can be.

Someone told me that Gazeta Pomorska were sending out sms messages today asking people, totally randomly, who did they vote for. What the hell is that about?

According to TVP Warsaw had the highest turnout by 16:40 at 53%, while the 20:05 report on the frequency said it was 51.4%, the best since the '93 elections.

Harry said...

Went to vote at about 3.30 (or at least the girlfriend did) in Warsaw and the polling station was already at 49.6% turnout.

beatroot said...

I think that the turnout - if it is around 55 percent - is a huge improvment on 40 percent! That's a very large increase percentage wise..

Damien Moran said...

how about we concentrate on the 1st thread rather than jumping around here?
Thinking of you here BR and trying to give ya some assistance;)