Nobody seems to knows why but it looks bad news for PiS. (photo: Marcinkiewicz with opposition leader, Donald Tusk – a new alliance?)
Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz has left the government. Either he resigned – as he says he has – or he was sacked, as the government appears to be claiming, Friday evening.
Watching the TV news now, the announcement – which government spokesmen made this evening – has clearly taken the government by surprise. In fact, I can say that this has caused havoc among the, possibly, ex- PM’s ex-party, the ruling Law and Juctice (PiS). No prepared press statements by either side, just a scrum of reporters chasing quotes.
The speculators are speculating on the news programs but we’ll know more facts tomorrow when the government will make a statement. But it seems likely that Jaroslaw Kaczynski, twin of President Lech, will take over as PM.
One rumor is that Marcinkiewicz has resigned to fight the mayor of Warsaw elections, which PiS do not have a decent candidate for.
The latest opinion polls show PiS in a two point lead with 29% over Civic Platform, so maybe they can afford a few changes?.
But this seems unbelievable. If that was the case then the news would have been stage managed, planned to get the best publicity. Breaking news on a Friday evening, when the media is winding down for the weekend, is rather unusual.
Others say that this has been on the cards for months.
Few had heard of Marcinkiewicz when he was given the post of Prime Minister after last fall's election. He was given the position because the opinion polls were clear that Poles did not like the prospect of having identical twins in both president and PM roles.
Well, it looks like they are going to get them now.
PiS have the problem that Marcinkiewicz was their most popular politician. With an approval rating of around 65%, Marcinkiewicz is the most popular politician in Poland by miles!
Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his brother Lech, have seen their ratings fall since the election quite dramatically.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski was also said to be a bit upset that Marcinkiewicz did not consult him before appointing Pawel Wojciechowski as finance minister after the resignation two weeks ago of Zyta Gilowska.
Marcinkiewicz was their best asset. But he always was a duck out of water in PiS. His economics are free market, while the Kaczynskis are more statist.
One thing is for sure: it seems everyone has been suprised that this has come now. Except, maybe, for Marcinkiewicz. And Tusk? Is it crisis management down at PiS headquarters this weekend?
Polish government starts process of self destruction as the prime minister resigns, Polish Outlook, July 8
Friday, July 07, 2006
Posted by beatroot at 7/07/2006