Sunday, October 23, 2005

Twins rule Poland


Final result: Lech Kaczynski (PiS) 54.04%......Donald Tusk (PO) 45.96%......turnout 50.99%
The election of Lech Kaczynski as President of Poland is unprecedented.

Since the fall of communism in 1989, Poland has never had a rightwing government at the same time as having a rightwing president.

Well, they have now. Lech Kaczynski’s win in the second round of the presidential election on Sunday follows his party’s win in the general election last month. Head of Law and Justice (PiS) parliamentary grouping is Lech’s twin brother, Jaroslaw.

Tusk had struggled to persuade older, poorer voters that they were safe with his brand of free market politics. And it proves that you cannot win an election in Poland without the support of rural areas.

Election fatigue

In Poland, general elections happen every four years, presidential every five. This year they’ve happened simultaneously.

The two elections – and with the presidential going into two rounds – have left the Polish electorate ‘exhausted’. They complain, not just of the length of the hustings but also about the negative style of campaigning – especially from the Kaczynski camp (Grandpa-gate).

Pretty mild stuff, though, compared to what frequently goes on in the West. And have Poles already forgotten the 1995 presidential campaign, when Lech Wales and ex-communist, Aleksander Kwasniewski, knocked lumps out of each other in a particularly bloody battle?

But in the context of both Tusk and Kaczynski claiming to be a ‘fresh start’ for Poland, it hasn’t looked good from this side of the ballot box.

What has characterized the presidential election campaign this time has been the volatility of the electorate. Few of the candidates enjoyed any ideological commitment or loyalty from the voters.

The first out of the trap, and into the lead in the opinion polls, was heart surgeon, Zbigniew Religa. His strengths appeared to be that he was not a politician. The trouble was, he didn’t have any policies. His lead was always going to be temporary.

Kaczynski was next to be favourite, until the only SLD candidate thought corruption-free enough to stand for president, Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, threw his hat into the ring.

But when Cimoszewicz dropped out after getting immersed in the inevitable corruption scandal, set up by his rightwing enemies, the way was clear for Tusk to go to the top of the polls. And he’s been there ever since, apart from one survey published on Friday, which showed Kaczynski staging his now usual last-minute comeback.

And then the farmers made up their minds, and voted for 'the Duck'.

Though voters found it hard to show loyalty to anyone, they were being offered a choice. Unlike in the UK, for example, there is a real difference of political outlooks on offer. True, in the final round, voters have had to choose between two candidates claiming to be rightwing. But the differences between them are significant.

Tusk stands for the young, socially aspirational middle class, who wants to put history behind them and just get on with things. Kaczynski appeals to older and poorer voters who fear the future, because they don’t particularly like the present.

Kaczynski has continually played on people’s fears about the future. He warns that Tusk and his party, PO, want to jump headfirst into a ‘liberal experiment’, by reducing tax radically and speeding up privatization. His mantra has been, ‘What about the poor, the old, the (18%) unemployed’?

The Kaczynsiki camp has also tried to play (somewhat ludicrously) to the far-right and reactionary gallery by raising the spectre of a ‘homosexual lobby’ in the EU, which is ‘infecting’ Polish society. With his appeals for a Poland ‘cleansed’ of these elements, and with a new civil service free of corrupt ex-communists, Kaczynski has occupied the moral high ground.

Kaczynski strategy has been to try and pick up left wing voters who want the state to protect them from the ravages of the market, and at the same time, appeal to the right, the fearful, the religious, who fear modernity.

A tricky act, but one that Tusk has had trouble dealing with. His party, Civic Platform, has been successfully branded, in the minds of many by Kaczynski, as standing for nothing but ‘money, money, money.’

But the Duck has had his problems too. He’s had to overcome voter’s fear of having a Kaczynski in the Prime Minister’s chancellery, and another, identical Kaczynski in the presidential palace.

Nepotism is seldom pretty, especially when it’s hatched from the same egg!

But apart from the ‘grandpa-gate’ scandal that never was, the better, more effective campaign, in both elections, has been the Kaczynskis’.

And now Lech and Jarolsaw have to do four years in government.

And then Poland will vote the ex-communists back in, just like they did four years go.

For more detailed results of the presidential election go to the PKW web site

28 comments:

StefanMichnik said...

Hi beatroot!

I've questioned you 2 weeks ago about election pools in Poland and the "special" role they play in the political campaigns in the postcommunist countries. What should the people who run Pentor, OBOP, Gfk and so one do in the morrning? :) Have you heard their expelnations? "What can we do, people are cheting on us!" Ha ha ha....Very funny!:)

beatroot said...

I think you are right, Mr Michnik. They have not just got this one wrong, but the two previous.

But are still thinking that this is a conspiracy, or is it just that they are just crap?

Gustav said...

They're obviously overestimating the importance of city voters and underestimating the rural ones.

StefanMichnik said...

Well...conspiracy??? No, no, no...You are saying that they have no got that wrong but the two previous...Well, but how come the difference between their estimatiion from 2 weeks ago and the actuall outcome was 20%????? My opinion is that there was no swing they just had to "adjust" numbers in order to try not to lose what they don't have (face). On the other hand there is PGB (www.pgb.org.pl) whose pools almost perfectly mirrored the reality (well so it is possible to overcome cheating respondents? ha?). The problem is that these pools were almost not present in the media.

beatroot said...

Michnik! You are still stuck in your conspiracy theories...the world does not work this way. First of all, I was agreeing with you that the polls have been constantly wrong all along, both on the general election and the presidential one. They have constantly underestimated the conservative vote. But to say that these companies - which are worth billions of zloty in revenue every year - sit in darkened rooms and 'massage' their figures is ridiculous. Cover ups are usually cock-ups, and the reason for the bias against Kaczor and the rest is a technical one...I think they have problems calculating the rural vote. But they better get their act right, and qucikly, because they will loose lots of business if they don't!

StefanMichnik said...

So why the PGB (www.pgb.org.pl) did not face all these technical problems?

Check this short article from "Nie" (sic!)
http://www.pgb.org.pl/pdf/nie.doc on the issue

michael farris said...

Kaczynski was mostly running as "Lepper lite" and was negative enough that he's going to have a hard time making amends, if such a thing were to cross his petty little mind.

If we want to talk conspiracy, let's talk about the rumor mills in the countryside. According to a friend, his village (around Swkryskie/Malopolskie) was rife with rumors of all the things Donald the terrible was going to do to them.

and michnik, nikt tu (przynajmniej ja) nie rozumie(m) twoich insinuacji, mow do rzeczy.

(translation: no one here understands (at least I don't) what you're insinuating, please be more clear)

marcoos said...

Since the fall of communism in 1989, Poland has never had a rightwing government at the same time as having a rightwing president.

This is not true. In the years 1990-1993 we had conservative president (Lech Wałęsa) and a few conservative (or conservative-liberal) governments (of Tadeusz Mazowiecki, Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, Jan Olszewski and Hanna Suchocka).

beatroot said...

I suppose you are right, marcoss. But at least half of those names were Uni Wolnosci ...and I don't think they would feel comfortable in neither PO or PiS. Mazowiecki has his own party, and Suchocka is too busy in the Vatican!

Gustav said...

Micheal, I think what Michnik is insinuating is that PGB, whose numbers were were slanted towards PiS throughout the campaign, was actually telling the truth, while all the big pollsters were willfully emphasizing the urban vote in hopes of giving Tusk a boost in the election.

Bill Rice said...

Beatroot,

I added a clarification to my post over at Dawn's Early Light regarding the source of the 12% figure on the polling differencial.

I would be very interested in staying in contact with you. Please drop me a line at DawnsEarlyLightblog@yahoo.com.

Insightful post.

Kind regards,

Bill Rice

Bialynia said...

I'm gagging on this result...

Kurczeblade.pl said...

Interesting text from The Economist, about outcome of pools in Poland.

You may find it interesting: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5093529

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